Sales of marijuana in Montana are higher than expected through the first quarter of this year, while seizures for illegal possession continue a downward trend. The marijuana regulation landscape continues to evolve, with several counties voting on measures in the June primary.

The Ups: Revenue

Adult-Use sales through March total just over $43,500,000 with estimated tax revenue of about $8,700,000. If this trend continues, adult-use sales could top $175,000,000 in its nascent year, much higher than the $130,000,000 estimate provided in the fiscal note during the 2021 legislative session.

Medical sales through March total just under $30,000,000 with estimated tax revenue of about $1,100,000. While this is less than the estimated average quarterly sales of $38,750,000, tax revenue forecasts for the fiscal year 2022 are still higher than expected.

The Downs: Registered Cardholders & Drug Seizures

The Department of Revenue reported a nearly 13.76% decline in the total number of registered cardholders, with decreased numbers in nearly all qualifying conditions:

Another downward trend is the number of marijuana drug seizures. The graph below shows that marijuana drug seizures peaked in 2017 and have steadily declined, on average, by 10% annually. With the legalization of recreational marijuana, the state experienced an 87.7% decline in seizures from 2020 to 2021, as reported in the Montana Incident-Based Reporting System.

A Changing Landscape

Under the Marijuana Regulation and Taxation Act, the local government statutes allow counties and municipalities to add issues to ballots regarding local-option taxes and licensing regulations. In the upcoming primary election, 12 counties will look to add a local-option tax, and two counties will ask voters to repeal one or more adult-use licenses:

Depending on the outcome of these and future elections, the marijuana regulation landscape in Montana could look drastically different by the start of the next legislative session.

The Economic Affairs Interim Committee will review these metrics and additional data at its upcoming meeting on April 20th at 1:45 p.m.